Here’s an extreme example of the power of leading versus lagging indicators: plane crashes. Every now and then, a plane might just fall out of the sky with no advance warning, but most often the cause was entirely predictable, and could have been caught by some leading indicator of trouble. The tragic lagging indicator is when a plane hurls into the side of a mountain.
Now, to be fair, the airline industry has an outstanding safety record, and their ability to catch problems before they turn into catastrophe is something many other industries would be well-advised to study.
However, a recent news article by the Detroit Free Press got me to thinking about leading indicators of airline disaster. The article was about an Air Traffic Controller who was caught watching a movie (Cleaner, starring Samuel L. Jackson, if it matters), rather than tending to the airplanes he was supposed to be watching. I am going to go out on the limb here and say that the number and amount of movies watched while on duty by Air Traffic Controllers is a pretty clear leading indicator of plane crashes.
Once this was made public, the United States Federal Aviation Authority naturally took steps to suspend the Controller in question and his boss (even though they should have fired them both), and has launched an investigation. And the pundits have all started to weigh in on the impact of goofing off at work.
In November of 2010, Salary.com did a survey that revealed that 36% of us waste two or more hours at work every day. If you think your organization has any significant number of people making up that 36%, then it should be a pretty clear leading indicator of your pending implosion as a viable organization.
But back to the Air Traffic Controllers.
Jonathan Spira, an analyst that has studied goofing off at work (sounds like a fun job) said about this situation: “Clearly, if someone is watching a movie, they are bored, tired, distracted or somehow unable to perform his job.”
What Mr. Spira missed is that the person goofing off might just be an idiot who needs a kick in the ass. Such as is the case with this Air Traffic Controller. If this problem is widespread (which the US FAA is investigating currently), then I am going to suggest another leading indicator for airline safety:
The number of Air Traffic Controllers disciplined or fired is a leading indicator of improved air traffic safety.
Who says Ronald Reagan is dead?
Now if you really want to know what happens in the control tower, click on this week’s video clip, below: